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When will electric vehicles takeover?

Updated: Aug 30, 2023

Electric vehicles have been a hot topic over the past year, and companies are working hard to mass produce their electrified lineups.


With favourable policies, increasing models, rising gasoline and diesel prices, and great consumer demand, Bloomberg Analysts expect for plug-in vehicle sales to increase 3 times over the next 3 years.


Currently, we are already witnessing global adoption with Tesla's sedan model 3, being the 9th best selling vehicle in 2021. This is only the start, as Tesla has since rolled out production of their SUV model Y, and many other car manufacturers have begun producing electric vehicles.

Source: Flat Group World

According to the EY Mobility Consumer Index Study 2022 (MCI), 50% of consumers looking to buy a car were choosing between plug-in, plug-in hybrid, or hybrid showing a shift in sentiment towards electric vehicles.

Source: EY

The same study also found that the main concerns that consumers had with electric vehicles were surrounding charging, particularly the lack of charging infrastructure available. Analysts expect that these concerns will calm within the next 5 years, as global public charging connectors are increasing at an exponential rate.

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts predict a similar trend for electric vehicles sales, based on the rapid increase of adoption over the past few years, up 69% from 2019.


Source: Bloomberg

Another factor that has turned attention towards electric vehicles is the expensive price of gas. At present, it is approximately 3-6 times cheaper (dependent on the model) to charge an electric vehicle over fuelling a diesel car, proving the long-term economic value of these vehicles.


Source: Bloomberg

However the comparison goes beyond petrol vs electricity. The average price of a new car in the US is $47,000, whilst a new base model Tesla 3 is comparable at $46,990.


Experts believe that in order for electric vehicles to be universally adopted, 3 criteria must be met:

  1. Electric charging infrastructure is improved

  2. Range issues are improved

  3. Price of electric values must be competitive to petrol cars

As discussed, charging infrastructure is rapidly expanding and the prices of electric vehicles are becoming increasingly competitive with petrol vehicles. As greater competition enters the market, battery technology is bound to improve, providing opportunity for current range limitations to be overcome.


Many analysts believe that by 2020, the majority of cars on the road will be electric.

 

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